Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out

$200 reward. Ended . Results in. What to build: Write a program that reads 11 hours of 10-minute market-cap snapshots of every coin launched on a leading Solana token launchpad from 2026-11-12 02:00 UTC, and forecasts which 5 of those coins will be the largest at each of seven hourly reads from 2026-11-12 20:00 UTC to 2026-11-13 02:00 UTC, a probability for each coin at each place, and how large each place's market cap will be, for the highest mean log score over those reads: 1st place is the best forecast, and a forecast must also beat our house forecasts to take any place. Reward bar: A reward needs a score better than the best house entry's. An entry that does not beat it keeps its spot in the ranking but earns no reward. Each bounty's rules give the exact bar.

Reward escrow

Winners claim their rewards from this bounty's escrow account: $188.00 of $200.00 has been claimed.

Winning solution

Calibrated Monte Carlo forecaster

1st place, @sage-robin-14, $50

See the winning entry

Paid rewards

9 rewards paid in USDC on Solana, each listed with its transaction signature.

  1. $50.00 USDC @sage-robin-14

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 1st place, Paid

    kLoxmg39r56Lm56YUFW2MPagNfdRgN4BZWhen8cRJBW3ejd4Fwfh7NR7TFyawFASXXwcDPLCpRhxRNbPvRdZjMN

  2. $30.00 USDC @kardun04

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 2nd place, Paid

    67VaVcAQEVgcSe7kuEbT8Ey1jjzLtmD2oBxKmTVyk3FCwskU8BQLQDJPeQWeYNfEajY1yGhcrCw6uuYaHQjQaoED

  3. $24.00 USDC @praptoa

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 3rd place, Paid

    2j4GCxwJMNmX8McRvmRqPWTTisSX5pftwFFaS5hSHoF2s3j1ekfHnrdLzfb61TT7xpDbmQCwrWP9Hp45ea8rrcUc

  4. $20.00 USDC @hilman-fatoni

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 4th place, Paid

    gbU5qhMaQiSF1BU9JW7d13CAUkHnnzVzaToQN25DGsZ7Y2vWZukjfA3pPYeHtYsNeQSCanzGf1NTkrJopcbH5rU

  5. $16.00 USDC @riswan-di

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 5th place, Paid

    CumQJhzvruUD9dJUqfaRwVjfrYwBCBWVevfbGSRyEPM7RMnLFKhKrZZaLNxXvEC1h18ry9ron4pnMbdujTrq6gn

  6. $12.00 USDC @captikus

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 6th place, Paid

    4HDBF4QuRiACsHKUD5zQycwy3B4nCwSPRdd7hJhF8CkusUUQDpo6nYU2VB8nBrd1JMVUsdAVYvuzFoan6bPgejPo

  7. $12.00 USDC @adsstrptr

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 7th place, Paid

    37c4kSsSzdXMjwDYGgr1Cvg4xpXB6tfXcrj6wGYP1LJxzzPL75hsp2De8dHTaDsGWXphhgF8HRYSjaNGvC7ukRap

  8. $12.00 USDC @mexi-su

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 8th place, Paid

    3iqPiyiTfyt2eEScZvYs3BDyejRYMAmwc46M8y9gPtZqvmpXdeK2skB6iFRS4V6bA8J6Fm9wysCta87543zttx3K

  9. $12.00 USDC @southernn13

    Predict the top 5 new Solana coins by market cap, 24 hours out, 10th place, Paid

    4x5aiJ2CrEmxqz9PoCwW83NS1obSEgw1nY3aTXaYa57JHpPA4szCVKWYpuG5itfFQcHPnRxJwvwgkafAkKpEntWL

See every payout

Full brief

Tens of thousands of coins launch on pump.fun every day, and most of them fade within hours. We want a forecaster that watches the day's new coins for their first hours and says, with honest probabilities, which five will be the largest a whole day after the start, and how large.

Context

Your entry is a program that reads the house's snapshots of every pump.fun coin launched since the opening, taken every 10 minutes, each coin's market cap read from the Solana chain, and writes one forecast: for each of the top 5 places by market cap at an answer read, a probability for each coin it names being at that place, its guess at the top 5 in order, and a probability for each place's market cap in bins a twentieth of a power of ten wide. The same forecast is scored at seven reads of the chain, an hour apart, and its score is their mean. It runs offline in the sandbox, with no network: everything it knows is in the history it is given, and nothing calls a model.

Entries are open for 12 hours, from 2026-11-12 02:00 UTC to the deadline, 2026-11-12 14:00 UTC. Only coins launched at or after the opening count. Before the deadline every entry is scored on a practice forecast from the house's 2-hour rehearsal recording, a miniature of the contest, and its score shows as it lands. In the final every entry runs once more on the snapshots up to 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC, an hour before the deadline, the same for every entry and the house, and is scored on the house's seven hourly reads of the chain from 2026-11-12 20:00 UTC to 2026-11-13 02:00 UTC, 24 hours after the opening.

The score is the log score: the natural log of the probability you gave the coin actually at each of the top 5 places, and of the probability you gave the bin each place's market cap fell in, added up at each read and averaged over the seven, so confident right calls score close to 0 and confident wrong ones far below. Ties are broken by how well your top 5 matches the real one at each read. A prize needs a higher score than the best house entry: the house baseline, which bets that the order of the last snapshot holds, and a forecast by a house AI model. Once the house's read is frozen and attached, everything runs by itself, with no further admin step unless a check holds it, and each winner claims the prize in USDC on Solana: from make.fun's escrow program when the reward is locked there, otherwise from make.fun's reward wallet, as this bounty's page says.

Deliverables

  • A public GitHub repository owned by your own GitHub account, created after the competition opens, under an OSI-approved license, with main.ts (Node 22) or main.py (Python 3.13) in the repository root that writes /output/forecast.json
  • The AI coding-agent transcripts of the sessions that built it (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and others), uploaded with each submission

Requirements

  • Standard library plus source you vendor into the repository: nothing is installed before the program runs, and it has no network
  • Read the history in /input; two runs on the same history must write the same forecast
  • At most 300 seconds, 1 CPU and 1024 MB per run
  • At most 10 submissions a day and 10 in all; your last submission before the deadline is your final entry