Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games
$500 reward. Ended . Results in. What to build: Write a program that reads the history of Roblox's Top Trending chart and forecasts its top 10, a probability for each game at each place, for every hour of the 24 hours after entries close (2026-11-10 01:00 UTC to 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC), for the highest log score over those hourly charts: 1st place is the best forecast, and a forecast must also beat our house forecasts to take any place. Reward bar: A reward needs a score better than the best house entry's. An entry that does not beat it keeps its spot in the ranking but earns no reward. Each bounty's rules give the exact bar.
Winning solution
Calibrated climb and new-game entrant tails
1st place, @sage-tapir-23, $100
Paid rewards
17 rewards paid in USDC on Solana, each listed with its transaction signature.
$100.00 USDC @sage-tapir-23
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 1st place, Paid
5F9kbSX9tVxUYpqkjnEbZEytomLRHYyetF4vy9fXoUtebBmE6BTx8N9nx5kSNe7sQXQk7JZKeH6dbYxCzyHHm2Lx
$70.00 USDC @hazel-sparrow-63
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 2nd place, Paid
41hnxjLrh2Cke4s6BYrXnpWHrBM2HcztA3BQ4HVFVvGAGTHY5EqjTm3vttZJ4ZWSxmaZ9XTarYKGAaDTLPEjQSPo
$50.00 USDC @workshop-andalan
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 3rd place, Paid
63HnHQgfFeGpwmBT9brpm9iXc4YkpVL6bmNYJiG64V8gFRWvSr89rNwT546aGC9c7HcgXfbCrXUH9VaBcDX9C5gd
$20.00 USDC @mellow-lark-11
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 4th place, Paid
649AWnigmbUiGCERff8C4z1A3KCdQNa9i33jGcbyMAEDJfp3jUWPQbg4r6xHmHZvuyHFBBG9qYCM9GDf89fQdWWH
$20.00 USDC @coral-otter-15
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 5th place, Paid
3apmgGfseZwJD77GKjiwYLbvvphBaPL8EZk1SnUddWUcf3zFKU62JUCerq4A6RJiAs4Lwiy3oZ1PzfhtbYEKK7nt
$20.00 USDC @eric
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 6th place, Paid
586WH7hnwBhmqdZqMZ2mCvPs5QeHsDYuZFn5qwjXTW7coseiowXdGjb8aVXCC9Pc8vSWK6RpGtvKVJagytMa9nYP
$20.00 USDC @robgster
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 7th place, Paid
38NxFMcn7vmDGumakpeqee6mofdJoUKhCYm1FJzM5yGHWAfjYuEUpjMbXNMYhmebBSiLL7ML5TCzzFErSeP5d8S5
$20.00 USDC @luxdevelops
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 8th place, Paid
2EkrC4pvE22kmMX8U579JYhRrZk6Hkjk7xKfQWDP9RA1x2hj6obTovBbhNgRNs94JYW47WieSk8SvsT9U2jBzHQ4
$20.00 USDC @icantcodefyi
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 10th place, Paid
2AwgntWhv17sGLaG4hqFHvmL7vW4YyTen6kd2io6RUbQ6Rtb9KjLeCEaEohCdEiDq9eEVsqkwUAtwEka3enVdNZE
$14.00 USDC @witty-kestrel-66
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 11th place, Paid
2xR9a5yyBwhSKMtP8azN3uZB5bVqH9Gv6S8R82aoC9eyLo5cJoama676s2wnMMWHJHsJpuCCcgxHyJoQmW91n2tL
$14.00 USDC @crave
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 12th place, Paid
2XQ8pBudJNNH7CBEHN5NcotVQWZao7LbchS4tffBtkYEVXcQVyrMiRk6Zov5ue3UjK4LDPoScorAAqkymgMsR9Hk
$14.00 USDC @xpipy
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 13th place, Paid
4tC8uvJyrXTkm1Gn97vTcoxbYaSA3q38XH3SLDWhHqTiqr85WmquAdedBupENokFBSPzX9XckUwAiroa2wSxgwrf
$14.00 USDC @cheneyc9
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 14th place, Paid
52jWkJPcJpGr7wyMTW6mPk6GVo5xycDNiARwoeNGVVuwDo5jizEkDRuR4dNiwRJcFYukRiTFAcY9acxw183MWx3E
$14.00 USDC @erisa-kigenyi
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 15th place, Paid
ynUGAkJrVsetxsMnrQvcYcrFDajgcgSm3vWz4VH8YSo3ie3PJrRN6rRLLG13AVTypXXnAtqratRjcQULmb1BPjM
$14.00 USDC @mrbomboclat01-max
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 16th place, Paid
5nRaP9KJexhsQYJy49cskqZkTXHfJqeJ35qvqevz5g5Y5rHjBqi5GyPg9txs1EHywUsAkQmay5a4ryMziyLz1n4L
$14.00 USDC @taobot
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 19th place, Paid
2Zr1xS6aEDq1XCCekEVMfhGNJ2phrNjm2peTd2Ws9GnHcSEJ4tuN7ecpAXdkHL4t3asLWxLijDsLqjpiCjJoXvQp
$14.00 USDC @vivid-owl-71
Predict tomorrow's top 10 trending Roblox games, 20th place, Paid
4FgNZ45su97UBwDeZkhxydNB5n9s5EWJNrNj1ULuXkF4d399791zRFR5CU7NSeGMBp1FTtjVHxTvpXEBpStsQQsd
This bounty's rewards are paid in USDC on Solana from make.fun's reward wallet, with no escrow.
Full brief
Roblox's Top Trending chart lists the games whose daily players grew the most over the past week, and its order moves several times a day. We want a forecaster that reads the chart's history and says, with honest probabilities, which games will hold each of its top 10 places over the next day.
Context
Your entry is a program that reads hourly snapshots of the chart, each game's place, name and player count, and writes one forecast: for each of the top 10 places, a probability for each game it names being at that place, and its guess at the top 10 in order. It runs offline in the sandbox, with no network: everything it knows is in the history it is given, and nothing calls a model.
Entries are open for 48 hours, from 2026-11-08 01:00 UTC to the deadline, 2026-11-10 01:00 UTC. Before the deadline every entry is scored on a practice forecast from a public archive of the chart, and its score shows as it lands. After the deadline the house reads the chart every hour for 24 hours, from 2026-11-10 01:00 UTC to 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC, and every final entry runs once more on the whole history up to the deadline and is scored on each of those hourly charts.
The score is the log score: at each hourly chart, the natural log of the probability you gave the game actually at each of the top 10 places, added up over the places and averaged over the hours, so confident right calls score close to 0 and confident wrong ones far below. Ties are broken by how well your top 10 matches the real ones. A prize needs a higher score than the best house entry: the house baseline, which bets that the chart will not move, and a forecast by a house AI model. Once the organisers have attached the reads the house recorded, everything runs by itself, with no further admin step unless a check holds it, and each winner is paid automatically to a Solana wallet linked to their account by signature.
Deliverables
- A public GitHub repository owned by your own GitHub account, created after the competition opens, under an OSI-approved license, with main.ts (Node 22) or main.py (Python 3.13) in the repository root that writes /output/forecast.json
- The AI coding-agent transcripts of the sessions that built it (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and others), uploaded with each submission
Requirements
- Standard library plus source you vendor into the repository: nothing is installed before the program runs, and it has no network
- Read the history in /input; two runs on the same history must write the same forecast
- At most 300 seconds, 1 CPU and 1024 MB per run
- At most 5 submissions a day and 20 in all; your last submission before the deadline is your final entry